Post-Brexit UK and Shifting U.S. Trade Policies: Global Trade Outlook

According to trade expert Peter Draper, the Trump-era “America First” trade policies and rising global trade uncertainty have disrupted traditional multilateral trade systems. This has affected trust in U.S. trade leadership and fueled rising protectionism, particularly across Asia and developing economies.

Key Developments:

• Since Brexit, the UK has struggled to replace EU trade ties. Exports fell 11% (2016–2019) and only slightly rebounded after 2020. UK trade policy remains unclear and fragmented.
• The UK now faces a dilemma: follow the EU’s regulatory influence (“Brussels effect”) or seek independent deals. Many experts say the UK lacks leverage to act as a global trade leader.
• The U.S. trade stance—regardless of leadership—remains cautious. Trump’s trade war approach and Biden’s “worker-centric” trade policy both mark a retreat from traditional U.S. trade leadership.

Implications:

• The EU and China are stepping into the trade leadership vacuum.
• Developing countries, including ASEAN members, are looking to expand trade diversification strategies.
• The CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) may become a key platform for middle powers like Australia and Japan to maintain global trade stability.

In short, with both the U.S. and UK pulling back from strong trade leadership, emerging economies and regional alliances are expected to play greater roles in shaping the future of global trade.

***Photo Reference:https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/global-trade-outlook-for-2025-has-deteriorated-sharply-wto-warns.html ***